Main Item: Correction to last Digest
An Activity in the last Digest read:
Activity 3: Forecasting Audit.
Over the last few months the Centre has been working with Kesten Green, exploring means
of monitoring and auditing the process whereby scientific information is turned into policy.
Kesten Green is an expert in this field. He spoke at the Heartland Conference and is based
in Monash University, Melbourne, but is currently working in New Zealand.

We have developed a project which will cost US$65,000 and have so far raised US$15,000 from
a local sponsor. The Centre is not seeking the additional funding needed to fund the internationa
l contributions to the project.
"Stuff" reports on Kesten's submission to the Select Committee on the Emissions Trading Scheme at:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4472519a7693.html

The second sentence of the last paragraph should have read:
The Centre is NOW seeking the additional funding needed to fund the international contributions to the project.


Special Item One: Kesten Green's Full Submission to the Select Committee.
The previous Digest referred readers to the "Stuff" report to show that, while the "Stuff" report
on the submission was somewhat snarky, the topic proved newsworthy.
The Finance and Expenditure Select Committee is in the process of hearing about 250 submissions,
most of which will go unnoticed.

The Centre recommends Kesten's actual notes to the oral submission at:
http://publicpolicyforecasting.com

Click on the Global Warming page then scroll down (quite a way) to Kesten Green
submits NZ Climate Change Bill is not based on science – and then click on Oral Submission.
This "journey" links to a host of interesting material.
Or go directly to:
http://forecastingprinciples.com/Public_Policy/Green%20notes%20for%20submission%20on%20bill.pdf

Special Item Two: A Plan for a "Prediction Watch".
The Centre is considering working with Kesten Green and others to set up a page on the
Public Policy Forecasting web page (see above) called Prediction Watch which would provide an ongoing check of public forecasts against real world outcomes.
We suspect some of our readers may have been collecting files of such comparisons.
If so, the Centre would appreciate your contribution. The IPCC and the Stern Report would be an obvious
starting point but we are surrounded by heroic and catastrophic forecasts which seldom eventuate.
This is just an idea at this stage and any feedback will be appreciated. The project will need manpower and funding.

Special Item Three – Our "Favourite Typos".
The typo where I wrote NOT instead of NOW reminds me of some commentary I read a couple of years ago
about "Favourite Typos". (I have no idea where, so don't bother searching in peer reviewed journals.)
Apparently many of us have "Favourite Typos" which, in spite of our best efforts, slip through all the normal checks.
Typing NOT for NOW is definitely my own "favourite" typo. I would like love to have a $1,000 for each time
I have made this error. Of course, we all make heaps of typos in the course of typing any document
but normally we correct them as we go. (Which is why those of us who started our writing life
on mechanical typewriters with typewriter ribbons regard the Word Processor with such wonder and affection.)
But our "Favourite Typos" keep on getting through. The letter T is some distance from the letter W,
so there seems to be a fused neuron in my brain which types T when I think W.
The commentator suggested that we do not see the "Favourite Typo" for the same reason
we make the typing error in the first place. The same fused neuron sees W when it should be seeing T.

This suggests a title for one of the "World's Most Boring Books Award" – Favourite Typos of the Rich and Famous.

Special Item Four: Changing Times – Changing Standards
The Note Bene page of the March 28 Times Literary Supplement has some fascinating observations
on changing standards in these modern times.
Penguin publishing has just released A$$hole – How I got rich and happy by not giving a s*** about you.
This weighty tome offers "an effective program of Assholism: Ten steps towards your awakening as a prick".
We won't elaborate further – you get the drift. However, Note Bene reminds us that when one form of
socially approved behaviour disintegrates, another takes its place, writing:
"You may feel better about A$$hole on learning that while repellent according to the old standard, it is
virtuous when judged by the new. The publishers reassure us that A$$hole is printed on "mixed sources" paper,
and produced in "well managed forests and other controlled sources". "Penguin Books is committed to a
sustainable future for our business and our planet. The book in your hands" – A$$hole: How I got rich and
happy by not giving a s*** about you – "is made from paper certified by the Forest Stewardship Council."

So that's all right then.